Market Update REINZ Sales Data for Christchurch November 2022

With just one week to go until Christmas day and it’s fair to say the interest in the property market locally will not be a high priority for most people for the next few weeks. However, for those of you who are in the market currently or perhaps are thinking about what your options and choices are over the holiday season then the following information may be helpful.

By the time you are reading this if you are one of the current ‘in the market’ as a buyer or seller then here is what you can expect over the next few weeks. You are no doubt aware that the local market has been slow but steady over the year and typical of an average pre-covid market. That sentiment changed a bit over the last month or so with the recent news broadcast from the Reserve Bank Governor and the latest interest rate rises and predictions of a possible recession in the new year. In essence, even more people made the decision to step back from the market and play the ‘wait and see’ game. Sales in October were the lowest in a few years and November while better and an average pre-covid month, they definitely didn’t fall into any world beating volume area either for this time of year.

Based on tradition we can expect to see the market slow even further over the lead up to Christmas and January is always a slow month, purely because not only are the public on holiday but most of the real estate industry as well. In Christchurch, it’s a double whammy because so much of our stock is sold by auction and so once people start back at work the sales don’t really start to flow until the auctions start getting called after a few weeks of marketing.
Make no mistake there are still and always will be some people who are looking to transact over December and January and in fact it can be a good time to secure a deal if the property is right for you before the rush starts after the holiday season. The months of February and March have traditionally been the two busiest months for overall listing and sales activity in virtually every year I have been in real estate, and I expect it will be no different in 2023 either. My fingers are crossed.

So having told you what we can expect over the next couple of months now we can reflect on what happened in November here in the Garden City. November’s figures advise us there were 559 sales recorded, with a median sale price of $680,000 and the average time on the market was 31 days. The question is what does this all really mean?

559 sales in Christchurch City was a reasonable average pre-covid month as I have said. However, the volume is still low when we are looking at an average pre-covid November. There is no doubt that a large portion of the available market is hanging back and playing a waiting game. Part of that is to see if prices will fall dramatically and another part is nervousness around where interest rates will go. The interesting thing with this aspect is that if you can afford to purchase and once you have a rate locked in, then any future increases won’t affect you for presumably a year or two, until your loan’s role over.
Whatever the reason the 559 sales recorded for November were up slightly on October’s volume of 489, this shows there still people who are prepared to buy and sell in this market and life keeps moving on for these families at least.

The REINZ median sale price showed a lift to $680,000, in comparison to last month. However, we can’t really read too much into this lift as we have seen a lot of volatility on a month-by-month basis this year. From a high of $700,500 to a low of $650,000. There has been little in the way of consistency over recent months, but by way of comparison the average of the last 7 months works out at $674,000. So, this month’s $680,000 median shows that consistency is still the norm for the moment, at least in our city.

In relation to the days on market figure of 31, it is another typically average figure for Christchurch City. As I have said in previous comments this is due in the main to the high proportion of properties marketed via an auction campaign across the city. Love them or hate them, whether you believe in the process or not, the results speak for themselves. The process has consistently produced sales for the sellers and buyers who engage in the process and that keeps our market ticking. In comparison to Northland where the average time on the market was 65 days, Auckland City 43 days, Wellington City 38 days and Dunedin City 38 days. The auction process that Harcourts excels at in Christchurch literally helps to keep our local market ticking over.

So, what’s been happening locally with Harcourts this past month? Harcourts offices around Christchurch listed 677 properties over November, 133 less than last year in November with the surplus stock rush not yet started in Christchurch. Almost half of these properties, around 331 were listed as auctions. We wrote 443 contracts and settled 415 during the month, so an above average month for this year. The average sale price achieved this month lifted again and you get to see the strength of Harcourts and hopefully the reason to use Harcourts in this market when you look at the last figures at the bottom of this page. Why do I tell you all this? Because if you have read this far you obviously have a reason and an interest in the market. There are a lot of comments out in the marketplace currently and the current situation is best summed up by the following statement. “Buyers are again weighing up the likely impact on mortgage rates with current downward pressure on property prices. Those thinking of selling are again looking at the market and asking, ‘is this the right time?”

So, is this the right time? All I can say is that you have all the information currently available, and all the information indicates that Harcourts in Christchurch should be the brand of your choice. We know that traditionally the best market is coming in February and March. The right time is when you are ready and if you are ready then now is as good a time as any. The bigger decision is choosing the right person and the right company to represent you. It’s interesting that even some of the builders and developers who previously did it all themselves are now asking Harcourts to help sell their stock. If you need any more convincing this data might help.

REINZ Figures: Median $680,000 Average $767,140 vs
Harcourts Figures: Median $715,000 Average $790,433

You have all the facts; all you need to do is decide whether “the time is right now?”

If so, Harcourts Grenadier is the logical choice.

By Jim Davis- Christchurch/South Island Regional Manager